Socorro, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

667
FXUS65 KABQ 110806
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
206 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms east of the central
  mountain chain this afternoon and evening.

- Moderate to high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars
  today and Tuesday, then moderate on Wednesday.

- Scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms will be
  capable of producing strong to erratic wind gusts of 40 to 50
  mph over portions of west central and central NM this
  afternoon.

- After decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  and Thursday, storm coverage will increase over central and
  western areas again at the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1254 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

There will be a stark contrast between the western and eastern
halves of the forecast area today with PWATs around 50-75 percent
of normal out west, and 100-125 percent of normal across the east.
With all the dry air in place, showers and thunderstorms over the
southwest mountains will be isolated to widely scattered at best,
there will be even spottier cells across the Rio Grande Valley,
and dry weather over west central and northwest parts of the
forecast area. Some storms west of the central mountain chain
will produce virga with localized, brief, and erratic, dry
microburst wind gusts up to 50 mph. Meanwhile, locations along and
east of the central mountain chain can expected scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening, some with locally heavy rainfall and a risk of flash
flooding mainly below recent burn scars. The greatest burn scar
flood threat will be in the Ruidoso area, where the burn scars are
more recent and more susceptible to rapid runoff. Slow, down-
basin, storm motion around 5-15 mph will increase the risk of
burn scar flooding along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain this afternoon. After midnight, mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to linger over the south central
mountains and east.

Tonight, a moderately strong east wind will blow through gaps in
the central mountain chain increasing low-level moisture over
central and western areas for Tuesday. The peak east canyon wind
gusts may reach up to 45 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque
around midnight. On Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast from the continental divide to the east
slopes of the central mountain chain, with spottier activity along
and east of a line from Clayton to Roswell, and from Farmington
to Gallup. PWATs will generally vary around 100 percent of normal
over central areas on Tuesday enabling the risk of burn scar flash
flooding to persist, especially since storm motions may be slow
and erratic with a high pressure system approaching from the west.

High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will vary from a few to
several degrees above 30-year averages across the west, while
eastern readings vary from a few to several degrees below the
averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1254 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The mid-level high pressure system will weaken as it moves
overhead mid week with decreasing coverage of showers and storms
on Wednesday and Thursday. The central mountain chain and
southwest mountains will probably be the most active areas for
convection on Wednesday, then the north central and southwest
mountains on Thursday. Storm coverage will increase again at the
end of the week, and convection will remain fairly active through
the weekend, as more traditional flow of monsoon moisture develops
in response to a broad high pressure system over the southeast US
and an upper level trough on the west coast. At this time it looks
like disturbances embedded in the monsoon moisture plume will make
Friday and Saturday the most active days with a risk of locally
heavy rainfall each afternoon and evening. In the wake of these
disturbances on Sunday, the monsoon plume will weaken and tilt
over eastern NM with drier air over the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to linger over
eastern areas into the late night hours, but they should end by
sunrise Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are then forecast along and east of the central mountain chain
Monday afternoon and evening, with scattered to isolated activity
across the east after midnight. Some storms east of the central
mountain chain may turn severe Monday afternoon and evening with
damaging winds and large hail. The Rio Grande Valley and
southwest mountains will probably have spottier storms mainly
during the afternoon, and some of these will be capable of
producing virga with localized, brief, and erratic dry microburst
wind gusts up to 45 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1254 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Isolated and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will again
be possible in the central valley this afternoon and early evening,
and over the West Central Basin and Range. Dry weather is expected
northwest of there, with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and burn
scar flash flooding farther east. Tonight, a moderately strong
east canyon wind will increase moisture over central and western
areas for Tuesday, then PWATs around normal for this time of year
are forecast to linger across much of the forecast area through
mid week. The focus for showers and thunderstorms will shift
gradually westward this week with storms favoring central areas
Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday. A more traditional flow
of monsoon moisture is forecast to set up during the latter half
of the week, especially Friday through the weekend with scattered
to numerous showers and storms over central and western areas. The
monsoon moisture plume looks to tilt over eastern areas on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  59  93  61 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  89  46  88  46 /   5   5  30  10
Cuba............................  87  53  85  53 /   0   5  30  10
Gallup..........................  92  49  91  53 /   0   0  10   5
El Morro........................  88  53  86  53 /   0   0  30  20
Grants..........................  91  52  87  53 /   0   0  30  20
Quemado.........................  87  54  88  56 /   5   0  30  20
Magdalena.......................  89  58  85  59 /  20  20  50  30
Datil...........................  87  53  83  53 /  20   5  60  30
Reserve.........................  94  52  93  51 /  20  10  40  20
Glenwood........................  97  58  97  56 /  20  10  50  30
Chama...........................  82  45  80  46 /  10  10  60  20
Los Alamos......................  84  58  81  57 /  20  10  60  30
Pecos...........................  81  52  79  53 /  40  30  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  81  50  80  51 /  40  20  60  10
Red River.......................  72  42  69  42 /  50  30  70  20
Angel Fire......................  74  37  72  37 /  60  30  80  20
Taos............................  84  50  82  48 /  40  20  60  10
Mora............................  74  47  73  47 /  70  40  80  20
Espanola........................  91  55  88  56 /  20  20  50  20
Santa Fe........................  86  57  82  57 /  30  20  60  30
Santa Fe Airport................  90  56  86  55 /  20  20  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  62  89  63 /  20  10  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  62  93  61 /  10  10  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  62  91  62 /  10   5  30  40
Belen...........................  97  59  93  58 /  10  10  30  30
Bernalillo......................  95  61  92  61 /  10  10  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  95  58  93  58 /  10  10  30  30
Corrales........................  96  62  93  61 /  10   5  40  40
Los Lunas.......................  96  60  93  59 /  10  10  30  30
Placitas........................  91  60  88  59 /  10  10  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  95  61  91  61 /  10  10  30  40
Socorro.........................  97  63  93  62 /  10  20  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  55  83  55 /  20  10  60  40
Tijeras.........................  87  56  84  57 /  20  10  50  40
Edgewood........................  86  52  84  52 /  30  10  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  51  84  50 /  30  20  50  30
Clines Corners..................  80  53  78  53 /  30  30  40  30
Mountainair.....................  87  53  83  54 /  30  20  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  86  54  83  54 /  40  30  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  90  59  86  60 /  40  40  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  80  54  76  55 /  60  40  70  40
Capulin.........................  75  51  77  51 /  60  40  30  10
Raton...........................  79  51  81  51 /  60  40  40  10
Springer........................  79  51  82  51 /  70  40  40  10
Las Vegas.......................  77  51  77  51 /  60  40  60  30
Clayton.........................  78  58  83  59 /  50  50  10  10
Roy.............................  78  54  79  55 /  60  60  30  20
Conchas.........................  85  60  86  61 /  40  60  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  84  58  83  58 /  40  50  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  83  58  83  60 /  40  60  10  30
Clovis..........................  88  61  87  63 /  40  70  30  40
Portales........................  89  61  87  63 /  40  70  30  40
Fort Sumner.....................  89  61  88  63 /  30  50  20  30
Roswell.........................  96  66  92  67 /  30  40  20  30
Picacho.........................  89  59  85  59 /  40  40  40  30
Elk.............................  87  55  82  56 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44